Election 2012

October 11: Rick Hill Picks up 4 Points to Take Lead, Bullock Drops 2

Most Land Board races neck-and-neck

(Excerpted from Public Policy Polling release) PPP’s new poll of the Montana Governor’s race finds some momentum for Republican Rick Hill over the last month. He now holds the slightest of leads over Steve Bullock, 43-42. He had trailed 44-39 a month ago. Libertarian Ron Vandevender and independent Bill Coate are each polling at 4%.

Bullock remains a good deal more popular personally than Hill with 44% of voters rating him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Hill’s favorability has improved a net 3 points over the last month but that still leaves him under water at a 37/41 spread. The movement in this race over the last few weeks probably has more to do with the deterioration for Democrats in the state overall following Barack Obama’s poor debate performance than anything to do with the candidates themselves.

Closeness is the name of the game in several of the other Montana statewide races as well. Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau leads Republican challenger Sandy Welch just 41-40. It’s a similar story in the Secretary of State contest where Democrat Linda McCulloch is at 42% to 41% for Republican Brad Johnson and 8% for Libertarian Roger Roots.

There are two other races where there’s a pretty clear leader right now. Republican Tim Fox has a 45-35 lead over Pam Bucy in the open seat race for Attorney General. And Democratic incumbent Monica Lindeen leads Republican challenger Derek Skees 44-37 for reelection as Auditor.

(Read More on Public Policy Polling polls)

Late September: Hill closes in on Bullock; Race Becomes a Dead Heat

Contrary to recent polling which had Republican Rick Hill down several points to liberal Democrat Steve Bullock, a September 20 poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, for the Billings Gazette, has the two in a statistical dead heat. This should cause concern in the Bullock camp, as analysis shows men pulling away from Bullock, likely due to his anti-jobs record in the Land Board and his comment during a debate that the economy is “vibrant” – an assessment labeled “Obamaesque” by a key GOP operative.

The other alarming factor, according to Democrat sources, is that despite being nowhere near the magic 50% needed to win, Bullock has hit a ceiling with his base voters, capturing 89% of Democrats, along with only 7% of independents (according to the Gazette poll).

In contrast to Bullock having no room to grow with the liberal voters that comprise his “home turf”, pollsters observed that Rick Hill is only capturing 79% of his own Republican base. Most of the remaining 21% will come “home” on Election Day, despite concerns over some abandonment of libertarian values represented by the Tea Party/Ron Paul wing of the GOP.

This means that if Hill can mobilize his base over the final month of the campaign, while holding steady with Independents, he will be a sure bet to occupy the Governor’s mansion in 2013.

Further analysis of recent polling shows Mr. Bullock on the wrong side of a raft of issues voters will be considering at polls Nov. 6:

• Steve Bullock’s endorsement by environmental organizations which support a radical “green” energy agenda is a liability. The Billings gazette poll shows voters support relaxing environmental regulations by 52% to 39%.
• At a recent debate Bullock spoke in favor of abortion-on-demand for minors without notification of parents. The measure opposed by Montanans at a 2-1 margin).
• Bullock favors continued legalization of marijuana, blamed by some for rampant increases in teen drug use (Bullock opposes marijuana rollback initiative IR124). B-G’s poll shows IR124 is likely to pass, standing currently at 44% – 31% (with 25% undecided, but likely to break along those lines); in fact, IR124 leads among men, women, Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.
• Bullock refused to spend a few hundred dollars filing an amicus brief with the other 26 states in opposition to Obamacare. Public opinion regarding Obamacare in Montana opposes the law at 53% – 40%. The socialized medicine legislation championed by Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) kicks in massive tax hikes for millions of Americans in 2013 (including everyone who owns a home) and penalizes anyone who does not buy insurance from massive corporations.
• As Montana’s top law enforcement official, Steve Bullock broke his word when he earlier claimed to support capital punishment. He later favored state legislation to abolish the death penalty. Montanans favor the death penalty 57% – 30% (click for Billings Gazette article regarding death penalty poll).

(Read more at Billings Gazette, Ravalli Republic)

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